Boxes

In each of the Fiscal Council’s key publications, we include topical “boxes” covering economic or fiscal issues. These are self-contained analyses unique to the publication in which they appear.

Over time, a number of boxes have been written. For ease of reference, we compile all of these boxes on this page.

Independent Economic Analysis: Assess official forecasts; Endorse macroeconomic forecasts; Assess compliance with rules; Assess fiscal stance

Boxes in the November 2019 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. The Department should improve its general government accounting
  2. Contributions to the Rainy Day Fund suspended before they start
  3. The Department of Finance’s proposals to address corporation tax risks
  4. Characterising downturns in Ireland’s domestic economy
  5. How well do consumer and business sentiment correspond to real economic activity?
  6. Using a Large Bayesian VAR for short-run forecasting of Ireland’s macroeconomy
  7. Current primary spending is the main driver of spending drift in recent years
  8. The impact of Brexit on the public finances assumed in Budget 2020
  9. Health overruns in recent years: magnitude and main drivers
  10. Assessing the discretionary revenue measures introduced in Budget 2020
  11. The way health spending is reported can lead to different conclusions about its performance
  12. What are Approved Housing Bodies?
  13. Using GNI* star to assess compliance with the Expenditure Benchmark
  14. Fiscal vulnerabilities – assessing compliance with the Department of Finance’s suggested alternative fiscal rules

Boxes in the June 2019 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Sustainable Growth
  2. Dealing with the Economic and Fiscal Impact of Surging Corporation Tax Receipts
  3. Fiscal Impacts of Hard Brexit Scenarios
  4. Reforms to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
  5. Deriving Forecasts for Modified Gross National Income and the Modified Current Account
  6. Capital Project Overruns in Ireland
  7. Sources of Revenue Surprises Over Recent Years
  8. Corporation Tax Concentration and Volatility
  9. Forecasting Tax Revenue a Reassessment of Elasticities
  10. An Assessment of Ireland’s Compliance with the Fiscal Rules for 2018 under EU Methods
  11. The Uncertainty in assessing Compliance with the Fiscal Rules

Box in the Assessment of Compliance with the Domestic Budgetary Rule in 2018

Boxes in the November 2018 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Measuring Government Stimulus Using Net Policy Spending
  2. Demographic Change and Public Finances
  3. Underlying Measures of the Irish Economy
  4. Health Overruns
  5. Fiscal Rules under Department of Finance’s Alternative Output Gap Estimates
  6. Introductory Guide to the Debt Rule

Boxes in the June 2018 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. The Duration of Cycles: Death by Illness, Not by Age
  2. The Appropriate Size of the Rainy Day Fund
  3. Impact of a Large, Foreign-Owned Multinational Firm Exiting Ireland
  4. New Alternative Supply-Side Estimates
  5. The Evolution of the Public Finances since Budget 2015
  6. Approved Housing Bodies
  7. Capital Expenditure and the National Development Plan
  8. Compliance with the Fiscal Rules Before the Crisis
  9. The Medium-term Orientation of the Fiscal Framework

Boxes in the November 2017 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Rainy Day Fund
  2. “Strong and Stable” — The Procyclicality of the CAM
  3. Challenges in Assessing the Equilibrium Household Savings Rate in Ireland
  4. Modelling Goods Exports
  5. Problems with the Commonly Agreed Methodology as Applied to Ireland
  6. Examining the Quality of Discretionary Tax Measures
  7. Plans for Public Investment Spending
  8. Ireland’s Public Debt Burden
  9. The Council’s Assessment of the Preventive Arm

Boxes in the June 2017 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Standard Debt Ratios and a 45 Per Cent Target
  2. Fan Charts for Components of GDP and Employment
  3. Potential Output, Overheating and the Department’s Commitment to Developing Alternatives to the Commonly Agreed Methodology (CAM)
  4. Macroeconomic Indicators for Ireland and Multinational Activities
  5. Spending Reviews
  6. Public Capital and Investment Expenditure
  7. The Council’s Stand-Still Medium Term Expenditure Scenario
  8. One-Off/Temporary Measures Relevant to 2016 Assessment
  9. Medium Term Expenditure Ceilings

Boxes in the November 2016 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: The Evolution of the Budgetary Process
  2. Box B: Brexit Latest Indicators and Possible Implications for the Irish Economy
  3. Box C: the Disproportionate Impact of Corporation Taxes
  4. Box D: Fiscal Council Stand-Still Expenditure Scenario
  5. Box E: Assessment of Compliance with the Budgetary Rule
  6. Box F – What is Fiscal Space
  7. Box G – Implications of 2015 GDP Outturn for Fiscal Rules

Boxes in the June 2016 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: A Programme for a Partnership Government
  2. Box B: Rainy Day Funds
  3. Box C: Contributions to Growth, Headline vs. Underlying
  4. Box D: Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks and Expenditure Forecasts
  5. Box E: Medium-Term Expenditure Scenario
  6. Box F: The Update to Ireland’s Medium Term Objective (MTO)
  7. Box G: Introductory Guide to the Preventative Arm and the Budgetary Rule

Boxes in the November 2015 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: Alternative Potential Output Estimates and a Modular Approach
  2. Box B: Use of Alternative Output Gap Measures by EU Finance Ministries
  3. Box C: Health Expenditure in 2015 and Implications for Future Expenditure
  4. Box D: Corporation Tax in 2015
  5. Box E: Illustrative Medium -Term Expenditure Scenario
  6. Box F: Setting Fiscal Rules in the Preventative Arm of the SGP

Boxes in the June 2015 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: Contract Manufacturing in 2014
  2. Box B: Towards More Relevant Measures of Potential Output
  3. Box C: Decomposition of Forecast Errors (An Update)
  4. Box D: Statistical Treatment of Irish Water
  5. Box E: Assumptions for Illustrative Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO)

Boxes in the November 2014 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: What are Income Data Telling Us?
  2. Box B: Estimates of Car Sales
  3. Box C: Weaknesses in 2013 Real GDP
  4. Box D: Treatment of One-off and Temporary Measures

Boxes in the June 2014 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: Sectoral Productivity and Changes in the Composition of Employment
  2. Box B: A Closer Look at General Government Deficit Forecast Errors
  3. Box C: Revisions to Structural Balance Estimates for 2013

Boxes in the November 2013 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. The Endorsement Function and The Memorandum of Understanding
  2. Forecasts on a “Most Likely” Basis – The Meaning of The Budget Projections
  3. Annual GDP Growth and Carryover Effects
  4. The Dynamics of Balance Sheet Recessions
  5. Impact on Forecasts Of Budget Moving To October
  6. The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
  7. Incentive Challenges in Public Expenditure Management: The Soft Budget
    Constraint and The Ratchet Effect
  8. The Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO)
  9. The EU Expenditure Benchmark

Boxes in the April 2013 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: A Decomposition of Forecast Errors
  2. Box B: Department of Finance One-Year-Ahead Tax Forecasts
  3. Box C: Impact of The Promissory Note Announcement on the Government Accounts
  4. Box D: Current Expenditure Ceilings
  5. Box E: The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
  6. Box F: Identifying the Appropriate Medium Term Fiscal Stance:
    Some Considerations
  7. Box G: Battle of The Multiplier Boxes

Boxes in the September 2012 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: Measures of Output: GDP and GNP
  2. Box B: Banking Related Revenues in the Exchequer Data
  3. Box C: A Hybrid Measure of Fiscal Capacity
  4. Box D: Fiscal Rules set out in the Fiscal Responsibility Bill

Boxes in the April 2012 Fiscal Assessment Report

  1. Box A: Forecasts for VAT from Budget 2012
  2. Box B: Fiscal Implications of the Promissory Notes
  3. Box C: Self-Defeating Fiscal Adjustment

Boxes in the October 2011 Fiscal Assessment Report