When gravity hits: projecting Ireland’s migration
(Author: Ainhoa Osés Arranz; published December 2019)
This paper projects Ireland’s migration flows up to 2050 based on new data on international migration and novel econometric techniques in the context of migration modelling.
Estimating Ireland’s Tax Elasticities: A Policy-Adjusted Approach
(Author: Niall Conroy; published June 2019)
This paper estimates the elasticities of three government revenue headings, while adjusting for tax policy changes. This is done using a new dataset, yielding more accurate estimates.
The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?
(Authors: Niall Conroy and Eddie Casey; published March 2019)
This paper examines the current account as a signal of economic imbalances in the economy. Specifically, it examines whether or not real-time estimates of the current account give similar signals to revised estimates.
Ireland’s Spending Multipliers
(Authors: Kate Ivory, Eddie Casey, and Niall Conroy; published January 2019)
This paper estimates government spending multipliers for Ireland. It contributes to the literature by using: (1) measures of economic activity that remove distortions caused by foreign-owned multinational enterprises, and (2) a number of statistical approaches so as to sense-check the multiplier estimates derived.
Nowcasting to Predict Data Revisions
(Author: Eddie Casey; published October 2018)
This Working Paper explores a way to use Nowcasting as a technique to predict data revisions.
Designing a Rainy Day Fund to Work Within the Fiscal Rules
(Authors: Eddie Casey, Niall Conroy, Kevin Timoney, and Ainhoa Osés Arranz; published June 2018)
This Working Paper examines the role of countercyclical “Rainy Day Funds”. It explores how such funds can be used (i) to address procyclical bias in measurements of the cycle, which underpin the EU fiscal rules; and (ii) to enhance the scope for fiscal stimulus in future downturns while also making it more desirable to set aside savings in good times. Drawing on existing mechanisms, it outlines an approach that could integrate such a fund with little need for major changes to the current EU fiscal framework.
Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap
(Author: Eddie Casey; published January 2018)
This Working Paper explores a number of ways to estimate an output gap that is relevant for Irish fiscal policy.
Producing Short-Term Forecasts of the Irish Economy
(Authors: Niall Conroy and Eddie Casey; published May 2017)
This working paper describes the short-run forecasting models used by the Secretariat for producing its own Benchmark macroeconomic projections as part of the endorsement process and for the purposes of its ongoing monitoring and analysis of the Irish economy.
An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland
(Authors: Andrew Hannon, Eimear Leahy and Róisín O’Sullivan; published September 2015)
This paper examines tax revenue forecasting performance of the Department of Finance over the period 1997–2014.
Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Data: The Case of Ireland
(Authors: Eddie Casey and Diarmaid Smyth; published March 2015)
This paper examines revisions to Irish quarterly macroeconomic data focusing on growth rates of real GDP as well as the main expenditure components. It highlights the considerable uncertainties not only about where the economy is going but also where it has been.
The Government’s Balance Sheet after the Crisis: A Comprehensive Perspective
(Authors: Sebastian Barnes and Diarmaid Smyth; published September 2013)
This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Government’s financial position. The paper looks at the evolution of Government financial assets and liabilities since the start of the financial crisis in 2008.
Other research papers
Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Institutions
(published January 2012)
The report assessed elements of the fiscal framework proposed in the Department of Finance’s March 2011 discussion document Reforming Ireland’s Budgetary Framework and contained recommendations for the design both of a set of fiscal rules and a permanent independent fiscal council.
Fiscal Rules for Ireland
(Author: Robert Hagemann; published 2012)