Working Papers


  1. (Author: ; published )

    This Working Paper explores a way to use Nowcasting as a technique to predict data revisions.


  2. (Authors: , , , and ; published )

    This new Working Paper examines the role of countercyclical “Rainy Day Funds”. It explores how such funds can be used (i) to address procyclical bias in measurements of the cycle, which underpin the EU fiscal rules; and (ii) to enhance the scope for fiscal stimulus in future downturns while also making it more desirable to set aside savings in good times. Drawing on existing mechanisms, it outlines an approach that could integrate such a fund with little need for major changes to the current EU fiscal framework.


  3. (Author: ; published )

    This Working Paper explores a number of ways to estimate an output gap that is relevant for Irish fiscal policy.


  4. (Authors: and ; published )

    This working paper describes the short-run forecasting models used by the Secretariat for producing its own Benchmark macroeconomic projections as part of the endorsement process and for the purposes of its ongoing monitoring and analysis of the Irish economy.


  5. (Authors: , and ; published )

    This paper examines tax revenue forecasting performance of the Department of Finance over the period 1997–2014.


  6. (Authors: and ; published )

    This paper examines revisions to Irish quarterly macroeconomic data focusing on growth rates of real GDP as well as the main expenditure components. It highlights the considerable uncertainties not only about where the economy is going but also where it has been.


  7. (Authors: and ; published )

    This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Government’s financial position. The paper looks at the evolution of Government financial assets and liabilities since the start of the financial crisis in 2008.

Other research papers


  • (published )

    The report assessed elements of the fiscal framework proposed in the Department of Finance’s March 2011 discussion document Reforming Ireland’s Budgetary Framework and contained recommendations for the design both of a set of fiscal rules and a permanent independent fiscal council.


  • (Author: ; published )