Working Papers

  • Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap
    (published January 2018)

    This new Working Paper explores a number of ways to estimate an output gap that is relevant for Irish fiscal policy.

  • Producing Short-Term Forecasts of the Irish Economy
    (published May 2017)

    This working paper describes the short-run forecasting models used by the Secretariat for producing its own Benchmark macroeconomic projections as part of the endorsement process and for the purposes of its ongoing monitoring and analysis of the Irish economy.

  • An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland
    (published September 2015)

    This paper examines tax revenue forecasting performance of the Department of Finance over the period 1997–2014.

  • Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Data: The Case of Ireland
    (published March 2015)

    This paper examines revisions to Irish quarterly macroeconomic data focusing on growth rates of real GDP as well as the main expenditure components. It highlights the considerable uncertainties not only about where the economy is going but also where it has been.

  • The Government’s Balance Sheet after the Crisis: A Comprehensive Perspective
    (published September 2013)

    This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Government’s financial position. The paper looks at the evolution of Government financial assets and liabilities since the start of the financial crisis in 2008.

Other research papers

  • Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Institutions
    (published January 2012)

    The report assessed elements of the fiscal framework proposed in the Department of Finance’s March 2011 discussion document Reforming Ireland’s Budgetary Framework and contained recommendations for the design both of a set of fiscal rules and a permanent independent fiscal council.