This page covers the Council’s occasional research work.
The Fiscal Council has several forms of occasional research outputs:
- Working Papers
- Long-term Sustainability Report: supporting research series
- Analytical Notes
- Datasets
- Boxes
- Conferences and presentations
Working Papers
Estimating spending multipliers in Ireland using the narrative approach
Elliott Jordan-Doak, August 2023
Demystifying Ireland’s national income: a bottom-up analysis of GNI* and productivity
Kevin Timoney, June 2023
Understanding Ireland’s Top Corporation Taxpayers
Brian Cronin, June 2023
Saving for Ireland’s Future: Building a Sustainable Framework to Fund the State Pension
Killian Carroll and Sebastian Barnes, March 2023
Estimating Ireland’s Probability of a Recession
Eddie Casey and Niall Conroy, February 2023
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council at 10 Years
Sebastian Barnes and Elliott Jordan-Doak, September 2022
Free State to Tax state: A century of taxation in
Ireland
Killian Carroll, April 2022
Managing Government Debt at High Altitude: Velocity, Instability and Headwinds
Sebastian Barnes, Eddie Casey and Elliott Jordan-Doak, March 2021
The Role of Elasticities in Forecasting Government Revenue
Niall Conroy, February 2021
Maq: A Macro-Fiscal Model for Ireland
Eddie Casey and David Purdue, February 2021
Forecasting Ireland’s Macroeconomy: A Large Bayesian VAR Approach
Killian Carroll, September 2020
When gravity hits: projecting Ireland’s migration
Ainhoa Osés Arranz, December 2019
Estimating Ireland’s Tax Elasticities: A Policy-Adjusted Approach
Niall Conroy, June 2019
The Current Account, a Real-Time Signal of Economic Imbalances or 20/20 Hindsight?
Niall Conroy and Eddie Casey, March 2019
Ireland’s Spending Multipliers
Kate Ivory, Eddie Casey, and Niall Conroy, January 2019
Nowcasting to Predict Data Revisions
Eddie Casey, October 2018
Designing a Rainy Day Fund to Work Within the Fiscal Rules
Eddie Casey, Niall Conroy, Kevin Timoney, and Ainhoa Osés Arranz, June 2018
Estimating Ireland’s Output Gap
Eddie Casey, January 2018
Producing Short-Term Forecasts of the Irish Economy
Niall Conroy and Eddie Casey, May 2017
An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland
Andrew Hannon and Róisín O’Sullivan, September 2015
Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Data: The Case of Ireland
Eddie Casey and Diarmaid Smyth, March 2015
The Government’s Balance Sheet after the Crisis: A Comprehensive Perspective
Sebastian Barnes and Diarmaid Smyth, September 2013
Long-term Sustainability Report: supporting research series
Nº1 What Climate Change means for Ireland’s Public Finances
Analytical Notes
Ireland’s spending rule and the third wave of the EU’s fiscal rules
Eddie Casey and Brian Cronin, June 2023
Ireland’s modified domestic demand: what it tells us and where we should be cautious
Eddie Casey, May 2023
Household Consumption and Savings in Ireland Since the Covid-19 Pandemic
Kevin Timoney, November 2022
Potential impact of Commission on Taxation and Welfare proposals
Eddie Casey, November 2022
A Bottom-Up Sectoral Assessment of the Strength of Income Tax Receipts
Kevin Timoney, May 2022
Historical Public Spending in Ireland: An Experimental Dataset
Brian Barbieri and Gemma Bewley, April 2022 Link to datasets
The path for Ireland’s health budget
Eddie Casey and Killian Carroll, November 2021
Ireland’s next ramp-up in public investment
Niall Conroy, Eddie Casey and Elliott Jordan-Doak, November 2021
Estimating Ireland’s Budgetary Semi-Elasticities
Killian Carroll, July 2019
A “Heat Map” for Monitoring Imbalances in the Irish Economy
Kevin Timoney and Eddie Casey, September 2018
Challenges Forecasting Irish Corporation Tax
Eddie Casey and Andrew Hannon, September 2016
Public Capital: Investment Stocks and Depreciation
Andrew Kennedy June 2016
Controlling the Health Budget: Annual Budget Implementation in the Public Health Area
John Howlin, August 2015
The EU Expenditure Benchmark: Operational Issues for Ireland in 2016
April 2015
Adoption of New International Standards for National Accounts and Balance of Payments
Eddie Casey, November 2014
Future Implications of the Debt Rule
John Howlin, June 2014
DIRT Forecast Methodology
Andrew Hannon, June 2014
Tax Forecasting Error Decomposition
Andrew Hannon, June 2014
Sensitivity Analysis of the Department of Finance Approach to Potential Output Estimation under the EC Methodology
John Howlin, June 2014
House Price Risks
Eddie Casey, June 2014
Datasets
The Council has produced a number of datasets over the years that may be of use to researchers.
Please cite the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council or corresponding authors if you use any of these datasets.
Data related to each of the Fiscal Assessment Reports are shown in the respective publication pages.
Narrative Approach Spending Shocks Dataset
This dataset provides time series on spending shocks using the “narrative approach”. The approach used to develop the dataset is set out in an accompanying working paper.
Long-Run Tax Dataset (2022 Update)
This dataset provides long-run estimates of a number of tax heads for Ireland.
This dataset provides a number of “policy-adjusted” measures of various revenue sources. The dataset and associated working paper (Conroy, 2019) can be found at:
Free State to Tax state: A century of taxation in Ireland
Long-Run Tax Rate and Tax Band Dataset
This dataset provides detail on Ireland’s tax rates and bands that applied since 1922. The link to the associated working paper (Carroll, 2022) is also included below:
Historical Public Spending in Ireland: An Experimental Dataset (Analytical Note)
Appropriation Accounts Dataset
These datasets represent an experimental long-run central government spending dataset for Ireland. The associated Analytical Note is Barbieri and Bewley, (2022).
Boxes
In each of the Fiscal Council’s key publications, we include topical “boxes” covering economic or fiscal issues. These are self-contained analyses unique to the publication in which they appear.
Fiscal Assessment Report (FAR) boxes
FAR June 2023 Box A: Recent developments in the ICT and pharmaceuticals sectors
FAR June 2023 Box B: Auto-enrolment and the savings ratio
FAR June 2023 Box C: Forecast errors point to inconsistencies in the fiscal forecasts
FAR June 2023 Box D: Windfall corporation tax receipts flattering the public finance
FAR June 2023 Box E: New fund could be a landmark reform
FAR June 2023 Box F: Updated reform proposals to the EU fiscal rules
FAR Nov 2022 Box A: Changing consumer habits pose risks to forecasts of inflation
FAR Nov 2022 Box B: Recent trends in public health sector staffing
FAR Nov 2022 Box C: Adjusting the general government balance for excess corporation tax receipts
FAR Nov 2022 Box D: Ireland’s Reserve fund is restored but needs rethinking
FAR Nov 2022 Box E: Potential reforms to the EU fiscal rules
FAR May 2022 Box A: Household income and Macro-Fiscal (in)consistency
FAR May 2022 Box B: A bottom-up assessment of income tax forecasts across sectors
FAR May 2022 Box C: Fiscal impacts of Ukrainian humanitarian spending
FAR May 2022 Box D: The Stand-Still approach and the Government’s medium-term spending estimates
FAR May 2022 Box E: The impact of inflation on government revenue
FAR May 2022 Box F: Recent increases in cash balances
FAR May 2022 Box G: Exchequer has benefited from some €22 billion excess corporation tax
FAR May 2022 Box H: Auto enrolment could have significant macro and fiscal implications
FAR May 2022 Box I: Inflation and the Government’s 5% Spending Rule
FAR Dec 2021 Box B: Modelling inflation in Ireland
FAR Dec 2021 Box E: Implications of a spending rule on the structural balance
FAR May 2021 Box A: Excess household savings could substantially boost economic activity
FAR May 2021 Box B: Higher productivity is an artefact of the pandemic
FAR May 2021 Box C: The impact of warehousing on tax receipts
FAR May 2021 Box D: The resilience of income tax in 2020
FAR May 2021 Box E: The Government’s new climate change targets need clear costings
FAR May 2021 Box F: Corporate tax reforms could reduce revenues
FAR May 2021 Box G: EU Funds will add to the State’s resources
FAR May 2021 Box H: Irish debt fares reasonably well on a fiscal standards assessment
FAR May 2021 Box I: A bottom-up assessment of Ireland’s structural primary balance
FAR Dec 2020 Box A: BEPS Reforms of International Tax Rules
FAR Dec 2020 Box B: What the Government’s medium-term strategy should do
FAR Dec 2020 Box C: The regional impact of Covid-19 on Ireland’s domestic economy
FAR Dec 2020 Box D: Updated Macroeconomic Scenarios to 2025
FAR Dec 2020 Box E: Covid-19 Support Measures
FAR Dec 2020 Box F: Seasonal Adjustment of Exchequer Tax Revenues
FAR Dec 2020 Box G: Policy Measures and Fiscal Scenarios
FAR Dec 2020 Box H: Covid-19, the structural balance, and one-off/temporary measures
FAR Dec 2020 Box I: Making the domestic fiscal rules more relevant
FAR May 2020 Box A: The economic shock depends on how Covid-19 evolves
FAR May 2020 Box B: Fiscal supports cushion the economic impact of Covid-19
FAR May 2020 Box C: Prospects for consumer spending could be better than in official forecasts
FAR May 2020 Box D: Three Macroeconomic Scenarios to 2025
FAR May 2020 Box E: Forecasting real GNI* growth rates in place of GDP and GNP
FAR May 2020 Box F: Policy measures introduced since the Covid-19 outbreak
FAR May 2020 Box G: Experience of Falling Revenues in the 2008 Crisis
FAR May 2020 Box H: Half of corporation tax receipts explained by domestic economy
FAR May 2020 Box I: Policy Measures and Fiscal Scenarios
FAR May 2020 Box J: Net debt and contingent liabilities
FAR May 2020 Box K: Exceptional Circumstances and the General Escape Clause
FAR Nov 2019 Box A:The Department should improve its general government accounting
FAR Nov 2019 Box B: Contributions to the Rainy Day Fund suspended before they start
FAR Nov 2019 Box C: The Department of Finance’s proposals to address corporation tax risks
FAR Nov 2019 Box D: Characterising downturns in Ireland’s domestic economy
FAR Nov 2019 Box F: Using a Large Bayesian VAR for short-run forecasting of Ireland’s macroeconomy
FAR Nov 2019 Box G: Current primary spending is the main driver of spending drift in recent years
FAR Nov 2019 Box H: The impact of Brexit on the public finances assumed in Budget 2020
FAR Nov 2019 Box I: Health overruns in recent years: magnitude and main drivers
FAR Nov 2019 Box J: Assessing the discretionary revenue measures introduced in Budget 2020
FAR Nov 2019 Box L: What are Approved Housing Bodies?
FAR Nov 2019 Box M: Using GNI* star to assess compliance with the Expenditure Benchmark
FAR June 2019 Box A: Sustainable Growth
FAR June 2019 Box B: Dealing with the Economic and Fiscal Impact of Surging Corporation Tax Receipts
FAR June 2019 Box C: Fiscal Impacts of Hard Brexit Scenarios
FAR June 2019 Box D: Reforms to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
FAR June 2019 Box F: Capital Project Overruns in Ireland
FAR June 2019 Box G: Sources of Revenue Surprises Over Recent Years
FAR June 2019 Box H: Corporation Tax Concentration and Volatility
FAR June 2019 Box I: Forecasting Tax Revenue a Reassessment of Elasticities
FAR June 2019 Box K: The Uncertainty in assessing Compliance with the Fiscal Rules
FAR Nov 2018 Box A: Measuring Government Stimulus Using Net Policy Spending
FAR Nov 2018 Box B: Demographic Change and Public Finances
>FAR Nov 2018 Box C: Underlying Measures of the Irish Economy
FAR Nov 2018 Box D: Health Overruns
FAR Nov 2018 Box E: Fiscal Rules under Department of Finance’s Alternative Output Gap Estimates
FAR Nov 2018 Box F: Introductory Guide to the Debt Rule
FAR June 2018 Box A: The Duration of Cycles: Death by Illness, Not by Age
FAR June 2018 Box B: The Appropriate Size of the Rainy Day Fund
FAR June 2018 Box C: Impact of a Large, Foreign-Owned Multinational Firm Exiting Ireland
FAR June 2018 Box D: New Alternative Supply-Side Estimates
FAR June 2018 Box E: The Evolution of the Public Finances since Budget 2015
FAR June 2018 Box F: Approved Housing Bodies
FAR June 2018 Box G: Capital Expenditure and the National Development Plan
FAR June 2018 Box H: Compliance with the Fiscal Rules Before the Crisis
FAR June 2018 Box I: The Medium-term Orientation of the Fiscal Framework
FAR Nov 2017 Box A: Rainy Day Fund
FAR Nov 2017 Box B: “Strong and Stable” — The Procyclicality of the CAM
FAR Nov 2017 Box C: Challenges in Assessing the Equilibrium Household Savings Rate in Ireland
FAR Nov 2017 Box D: Modelling Goods Exports
FAR Nov 2017 Box E: Problems with the Commonly Agreed Methodology as Applied to Ireland
FAR Nov 2017 Box F: Examining the Quality of Discretionary Tax Measures
FAR Nov 2017 Box G: Plans for Public Investment Spending
FAR Nov 2017 Box H: Ireland’s Public Debt Burden
FAR Nov 2017 Box I: The Council’s Assessment of the Preventive Arm
FAR June 2017 Box A: Standard Debt Ratios and a 45 Per Cent Target
FAR June 2017 Box B: Fan Charts for Components of GDP and Employment
FAR June 2017 Box D: Macroeconomic Indicators for Ireland and Multinational Activities
FAR June 2017 Box E: Spending Reviews
FAR June 2017 Box F: Public Capital and Investment Expenditure
FAR June 2017 Box G: The Council’s Stand-Still Medium Term Expenditure Scenario
FAR June 2017 Box H: One-Off/Temporary Measures Relevant to 2016 Assessment
FAR June 2017 Box I: Medium Term Expenditure Ceilings
FAR Nov 2016 Box A: The Evolution of the Budgetary Process
FAR Nov 2016 Box B: Brexit Latest Indicators and Possible Implications for the Irish Economy
FAR Nov 2016 Box C: the Disproportionate Impact of Corporation Taxes
FAR Nov 2016 Box D: Fiscal Council Stand-Still Expenditure Scenario
FAR Nov 2016 Box E: Assessment of Compliance with the Budgetary Rule
FAR Nov 2016 Box F – What is Fiscal Space
FAR Nov 2016 Box G – Implications of 2015 GDP Outturn for Fiscal Rules
FAR June 2016 Box A: A Programme for a Partnership Government
FAR June 2016 Box B: Rainy Day Funds
FAR June 2016 Box C: Contributions to Growth, Headline vs. Underlying
FAR June 2016 Box D: Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks and Expenditure Forecasts
FAR June 2016 Box E: Medium-Term Expenditure Scenario
FAR June 2016 Box F: The Update to Ireland’s Medium Term Objective (MTO)
FAR June 2016 Box G: Introductory Guide to the Preventative Arm and the Budgetary Rule
FAR Nov 2015 Box A: Alternative Potential Output Estimates and a Modular Approach
FAR Nov 2015 Box B: Use of Alternative Output Gap Measures by EU Finance Ministries
FAR Nov 2015 Box C: Health Expenditure in 2015 and Implications for Future Expenditure
FAR Nov 2015 Box D: Corporation Tax in 2015
FAR Nov 2015 Box E: Illustrative Medium -Term Expenditure Scenario
FAR Nov 2015 Box F: Setting Fiscal Rules in the Preventative Arm of the SGP
FAR June 2015 Box A: Contract Manufacturing in 2014
>FAR June 2015 Box B: Towards More Relevant Measures of Potential Output
FAR June 2015 Box C: Decomposition of Forecast Errors (An Update)
FAR June 2015 Box D: Statistical Treatment of Irish Water
FAR June 2015 Box E: Assumptions for Illustrative Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO)
FAR Nov 2014 Box A: What are Income Data Telling Us?
FAR Nov 2014 Box B: Estimates of Car Sales
FAR Nov 2014 Box C: Weaknesses in 2013 Real GDP
FAR Nov 2014 Box D: Treatment of One-off and Temporary Measures
FAR June 2014 Box A: Sectoral Productivity and Changes in the Composition of Employment
FAR June 2014 Box B: A Closer Look at General Government Deficit Forecast Errors
FAR June 2014 Box C: Revisions to Structural Balance Estimates for 2013
FAR Nov 2013 Box A: The Endorsement Function and The Memorandum of Understanding
FAR Nov 2013 Box B: Forecasts on a “Most Likely” Basis – The Meaning of The Budget Projections
FAR Nov 2013 Box C: Annual GDP Growth and Carryover Effects
FAR Nov 2013 Box D: The Dynamics of Balance Sheet Recessions
FAR Nov 2013 Box EA: Impact on Forecasts Of Budget Moving To October
FAR Nov 2013 Box F: The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
FAR Nov 2013 Box H: The Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO)
FAR Nov 2013 Box I: The EU Expenditure Benchmark
FAR Apr 2013 Box A: A Decomposition of Forecast Errors
FAR Apr 2013 Box B: Department of Finance One-Year-Ahead Tax Forecasts
FAR Apr 2013 Box C: Impact of The Promissory Note Announcement on the Government Accounts
FAR Apr 2013 Box D: Current Expenditure Ceilings
FAR Apr 2013 Box E: The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
FAR Apr 2013 Box F: Identifying the Appropriate Medium Term Fiscal Stance:
Some Considerations
FAR Apr 2013 Box G: Battle of The Multiplier Boxes
FAR Sep 2012 Box A: Measures of Output: GDP and GNP
FAR Sep 2012 Box B: Banking Related Revenues in the Exchequer Data
FAR Sep 2012 Box C: A Hybrid Measure of Fiscal Capacity
FAR Sep 2012 Box D: Fiscal Rules set out in the Fiscal Responsibility Bill
FAR Apr 2012 Box A: Forecasts for VAT from Budget 2012
FAR Apr 2012 Box B: Fiscal Implications of the Promissory Notes
FAR Apr 2012 Box C: Self-Defeating Fiscal Adjustment
FAR Oct 2011 Box 2.1: Irish Growth Forecasts
FAR Oct 2011 Box 3.1: Cyclically Adjusted Balances and the Output Gap
FAR Oct 2011 Box 3.2: Fiscal-Feedback Model
FAR Oct 2011 Box 4.1: The Real Effects of Austerity
Pre-Budget Statement (PBS) Boxes
PBS 2022 Box B: The Government’s new spending rule is welcome but needs work
PBS 2022 Box C: Higher investment helps address priorities but could be costly